The article “Propagating epistemic uncertainties in planning and design of energy efficient districts” presents a novel methodology based on Dempster-Shafer theory to quantify and propagate uncertainties in urban energy planning, especially those arising from using building archetypes in district modeling. Applied to a Belgian case study, the findings highlight how accounting for uncertainty reveals the limitations of seemingly cost-effective decarbonization scenarios and emphasizes the robustness of more ambitious emission reduction targets.

Authors: Mohsen Sharif, Amin Kouti, Mohammad Haris Shamsi, Rui Guo, Dirk Saelens

The article was published in the journal Sustainable Cities and Society.